The Climate-Food-Urbanization Nexus and the Precursors of Instability in Africa

Climate change is already disrupting economic security and livelihoods, increasing societal instability, and threatening global and national security. This is particularly true in Sub-Saharan Africa where climate change impacts come on top of rapid urbanization, economic growth, and transformation of the continent’s agricultural systems. Large investments in infrastructure and farming are changing rural labor markets and supply chains, altering the food system. In parallel, urbanization is altering both rural and urban labor opportunities, particularly among young people. These demographic change processes fundamentally link to food systems. Whether these changes have made agricultural and urban systems more vulnerable to climate change is a critical question. Predicting how this complex set of dynamics influences conflict and identifying potential points of intervention requires a detailed understanding of the climate-food-urbanization nexus. Clark University’s role in this project involves the use of remote sensing images and other available geospatial data together with machine learning to map infrastructure and agricultural change in Zambia and selected portions of Kenya and Tanzania.