Coupled Prediction of Residential Fertilizer Use and Nitrogen Loads to Long Island Sound: An Integrated Targeting Tool for Nitrogen-Reduction Behavior Change Campaigns

Non-point sources account for approximately 60% of nitrogen loading in Long Island Sound (LIS) and residential lawn fertilizer has been among the most difficult of these sources to reduce. In response, policymakers and other stakeholders have proposed behavior-change campaigns to promote lawn practices that reduce fertilizer use. However, the potential effect of these efforts on nitrogen loads in LIS is entirely unknown. Even if the number of households influenced by a campaign can be identified, not all households fertilize equally, not all fertilizer applications have the same impact on nitrogen loads, and not all households react similarly to behavior change-campaigns. Working with colleagues at University of Connecticut, University of Maryland, and University of Miami, and building on prior research efforts in LIS, this project will develop a model that links parcel-level behavioral predictions for residential fertilizer use with integrated nitrogen load models to accurately predict the nitrogen loading impacts of behavior changes, by household types, in specific coastal areas throughout Connecticut and New York. The team will also evaluate the ways in which targeted behavior-change campaigns for residential lawn care influence nitrogen loads to LIS areas proximate to environmental justice (EJ) communities, and whether fertilizer use by wealthier households might have disproportionate effects on EJ communities. Results will be used to provide actionable guidance for targeting behavior-change campaigns across the LIS watershed.