Evaluating Social, Economic and Environmental Outcomes of Community-Based Coastal Adaptation Engagements: An Integrated Economics and Machine-Learning Framework

Coastal communities face compound hazards due to elements such as sea-level rise, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather, flooding, changing morphology, heat, drought, and human development. Amidst these challenges, public and private organizations have developed public engagement and capacity-building programs to help support adaptation planning and implementation that meet community goals, support social welfare and equity, enhance ecosystems and services, reflect credible science, and engage a diversity of community groups. Despite common beliefs that engagement and capacity-building improve adaptation outcomes, there is a lack of systematic evidence on performance, including impacts on social, environmental and economic outcomes. This project will develop a novel analytical framework and quantitative approach to evaluate and predict the extent to which heterogeneous engagement and capacity-building activities enhance communities’ capacity to progress towards transformative adaptation. Results will be used in coordination with partners and stakeholders to provide guidance for effective engagement and capacity-building, targeted to community characteristics.