A relationship between betting money lines and fouls in the NBA

Ye, a Psychology major from the Class of 2024, identified a significant correlation between money lines, win probabilities, and fouls drawn and committed, specifically for the 2023 Lakers. The study utilized a standardized delta for fouls drawn minus fouls committed on the vertical axis, and a standardized difference between the money lines’ implied win probabilities and actual win probabilities (estimated through ESPN simulations) on the horizontal axis. This analysis aimed to uncover insights into how betting odds and in-game fouls are interconnected, offering implications for sports analytics and betting strategies in basketball.