Date: October 16, 2025, 12 – 1:30 pm
Room: JC118
Speaker: Balázs Zélity (Wesleyan University)
Title: Demographics and International Capital Flows: An Empirical Assessment
Abstract: This paper empirically investigates whether shifts in demographic structure have an impact on cross-border capital flows. Country-level panel data with global coverage is utilised in fixed effects regressions. Demographic variables are instrumented by their predicted values, which are calculated using a shift-share methodology. Local projections estimates complement the results with a dynamic perspective. The main finding is that there is a persistent positive relationship between a country’s mean age and its current and financial account balance — suggesting that population ageing increases net capital outflows. The mechanisms for this result are investigated by decomposing the current and financial accounts into their components as well as exploring what dimension of a country’s population age structure matter the most.
Contact: Kensuke Suzuki, Assistant Professor of Economics, KSuzuki@clarku.edu
