{"id":27035,"date":"2026-02-12T16:50:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T21:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/?post_type=story&#038;p=27035"},"modified":"2026-02-13T11:18:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T16:18:33","slug":"in-brazils-cerrado-savanna-researchers-study-future-climate-change-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"story","link":"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2026\/02\/12\/in-brazils-cerrado-savanna-researchers-study-future-climate-change-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"In Brazil\u2019s Cerrado savanna, researchers study, model future climate change scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-food-water-and-ai-750-000-nasa-grant-funds-research-by-geography-faculty-students\">Food, water, and AI: $750,000 NASA grant funds research by geography faculty, students<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In a news photo from China, an elderly couple sits on stools beside a farm field. Nearby, six empty seats represent their adult children, who have left the land to seek prosperity in the city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a scenario that Geography Professor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/faculty\/profiles\/gustavo-oliveira\/\">Gustavo Oliveira<\/a> of Clark\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/climate-environment-society\/\">School of Climate, Environment, and Society<\/a> understands all too well. An expert in global agro-industrial trade and food-supply systems, he has experienced the issues facing small-scale farmers firsthand. Oliveira and his wife, a professor at Amherst College, have traveled back to her native China to help her elderly parents transplant rice. No one else is available to work the farm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>For decades, food insecurity commonly \u2014 and mistakenly \u2014 has become linked to population growth, he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPeople still rely on 20th-century thinking about overpopulation and the need to increase food production,\u201d explains Oliveira (above, in a cotton field in Brazil\u2019s Cerrado). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBut that way of thinking doesn\u2019t accurately reflect our current reality, which is about urbanization, industrialization, and market forces.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<aside class=\"wp-block-group boxout has-light-teal-background-color has-background is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-12dd3699 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-study-climate-change-gis-and-ai\">Study climate change, GIS, and AI<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/climate-environment-society\/academics\/climate-environment-and-society-ba\/\">B.A. in climate, environment, and society<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/programs\/major\/geography-ba\/\">B.A. in geography<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/climate-environment-society\/academics\/climate-and-society-ms\/\">M.S. in climate and society<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/programs\/masters\/geographic-information-science-ms\/\">M.S. in GIS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/departments\/geography\/graduate-programs\/doctoral-programs\/\">Ph.D. in geography<\/a><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Oliveira-planting-rice-2019-web.avif\" alt=\"Gustavo Oliveira helps his inlaws with planting rice in China.\" class=\"wp-image-27069\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Oliveira-planting-rice-2019-web.avif 720w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Oliveira-planting-rice-2019-web-300x225.avif 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Gustavo Oliveira helps his inlaws with planting rice in China in 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the world \u2014 and especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America \u2014 foreign investors have snatched up millions of acres of farmland in a \u201cglobal land grab\u201d since 2010, he points out. The land has been turned over to expansive farm operations, resource extraction, energy production, and development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Led by growth in Africa, the global population is expected to increase from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to as many as 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, then start to decline, according to the United Nations. But today, much of the world \u2014 including traditional economic powerhouses like China, Brazil, the United States, Germany, and Japan \u2014 already is seeing lower fertility rates, aging populations, and slower or decreasing growth rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, young people are bypassing village life and farming for what they perceive as more promising, lucrative work in the city, according to Oliveira. The U.N. projects that by 2050, almost seven in 10 people across the globe will be urban residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNot enough hands, rather than too many mouths, is the bigger challenge to food security in the future,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-vicious-cycle-where-we-consume-water-twice-to-make-the-energy-and-then-to-plant\">\u2018A vicious cycle where we consume water twice, to make the energy and then to plant\u2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"h-deemed-a-significant-carbon-sink-due-to-extensive-plant-root-systems-brazil-s-cerrado-harbors-the-earth-s-second-largest-underground-water-reservoir\">Deemed a significant carbon sink due to extensive plant root systems, Brazil\u2019s Cerrado harbors the Earth\u2019s second-largest underground water reservoir. For years, it has been known as the region\u2019s \u201cWater Tank.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, the area is now threatened by deforestation and declining water tables, made worse by climate change. In addition to dealing with industrial agriculture\u2019s impacts on the aquifer, the region has seen a 12 percent decrease in rainfall since 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-300x300.avif\" alt=\"Rowan Compton and Antonio Fonseca take a selfie in Brazil with some of the irrigation equipment used for watering crops.\" class=\"wp-image-27059\" style=\"width:375px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-300x300.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-1024x1024.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-150x150.avif 150w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-768x768.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-1536x1536.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil-1200x1200.avif 1200w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Rowan-Compton-Antonio-Fonseca-Brazil.avif 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Two students \u2014 Rowan Compton \u201925, M.S. \u201926, left, and Antonio Fonseca, a Ph.D. student in geography \u2014 have been funded by the NASA grant to conduct research in Brazil. Above, they take a selfie, with irrigation equipment in the background.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s soybeans require a lot of water to grow, and industrial farms have relied on irrigation to adapt to climate change, pumping out water from the rivers and aquifers and distributing it via huge pivots in the fields, Oliveira explains. The pivoting irrigation creates green \u201ccrop circles\u201d that dot the Cerrado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over four decades, China emerged as the world\u2019s biggest pork consumer and producer, with rippling effects. To feed its hogs, many of which are confined to high-rise factories, China imports 80 percent of Brazil\u2019s soybean crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having passed the U.S. as the world\u2019s No. 1 soybean grower, Brazil has cleared at least 11 percent of the 789,000-square-mile Cerrado, the most biologically rich savanna in the world, to plant 52.9 million acres of commercially farmed monoculture crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As part of a three-year, $750,000\u00a0NASA-funded project that started in 2023, Oliveira and Geography Professor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/faculty\/profiles\/gustavo-oliveira\/\">Robert Gil Pontius Jr.<\/a>, also affiliated with Clark\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/climate-environment-society\/\">School of Climate, Environment, and Society<\/a>, have been modeling future, competing scenarios of this expansion, given climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>\u201cYou need a lot of energy to run a lot of pumps, to pump a lot of water.\u201d<\/p><cite>\u2014 Professor gustavo oliveira<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Deemed a significant carbon sink due to extensive plant root systems, Brazil\u2019s Cerrado harbors the earth\u2019s second-largest underground water reservoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, the area is threatened by deforestation and declining water tables, made worse by climate change. In addition to dealing with industrial agriculture\u2019s impacts on the aquifer, the region has seen a 12 percent decrease in rainfall since 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s soybeans require a lot of water to grow, and industrial farms have relied on irrigation to adapt to climate change, pumping out water from the rivers and aquifers and distributing it via huge pivots in the fields, Oliveira explains. The pivoting irrigation creates green \u201ccrop circles\u201d that dot the Cerrado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a vicious cycle where we consume water twice, to make the energy and then to plant the soybeans and the cotton,\u201d Oliveira says. \u201cYou need a lot of energy to run a lot of pumps, to pump a lot of water.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-students-conduct-field-research-in-brazil-apply-geospatial-science-ai-to-explore-water-scarcity\">Students conduct field research in Brazil, apply geospatial science, AI to explore water scarcity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Oliveira and Pontius\u2019 research team includes two students who conducted research over two summers in Brazil: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2026\/02\/12\/with-ais-assistance-researchers-maximize-clark-tool-to-reveal-how-our-planet-is-changing\/\">Antonio Victor Galv\u00e3o da Fonseca<\/a>, a third-year Ph.D. student in geography, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2024\/10\/09\/steinbrecher-fellow-spends-summer-with-keepers-of-the-pastures\/\">Rowan&nbsp;Compton<\/a> \u201925, M.S. \u201926.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Compton\u2019s undergraduate honors thesis focused on his research with the project. In summer 2024, a Clark Steinbrecher Fellowship funded the geography major\u2019s research at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute, where he studied land use and water scarcity in the Cerrado.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<aside class=\"wp-block-group boxout has-light-teal-background-color has-background is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-12dd3699 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-are-students-researching\">What are students researching?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2024\/10\/09\/steinbrecher-fellow-spends-summer-with-keepers-of-the-pastures\/\">Rowan Compton explores water scarcity impacts on communities<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2026\/02\/12\/with-ais-assistance-researchers-maximize-clark-tool-to-reveal-how-our-planet-is-changing\/\">Antonio Fonseca applies AI to make open-source geospatial tool easier to access<\/a> <\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ll be working on this project through the rest of my Clark career, and I\u2019m sure it\u2019ll travel with me beyond Clark,\u201d he said after his first trip in 2024. \u201cThis is the kind of thing that is influential for a lifetime.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last summer, Compton returned to Brazil for more field work, and now continues his work on the project through Clark\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/academics\/graduate\/programs\/masters\/geographic-information-science\/\">4+1 Accelerated Master\u2019s in GIS<\/a>. Recently, Oliveira submitted an article that draws upon Compton\u2019s honors thesis to a professional journal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-1024x768.avif\" alt=\"Antonio Fonseca in soybean field\" class=\"wp-image-27068\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-1024x768.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-300x225.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-768x576.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-1536x1152.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans-1200x900.avif 1200w, https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/Antonio-Fonseca-soybeans.avif 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Antonio Fonseca collects GPS points for mapping the crop fields that rely on pivot irrigation in Brazil\u2019s Cerrado.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-faculty-student-team-applying-geospatial-science-artificial-intelligence-to-gain-insights\">Faculty-student team applying geospatial science, artificial intelligence to gain insights<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To understand where irrigation and agriculture could expand, Pontius, an expert in geospatial science and mathematical modeling, is using satellite data to develop more comprehensive maps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summer 2024, Fonseca joined Oliveira in Brazil to collect GPS points for mapping the crop fields that rely on pivot irrigation. Last summer, he and Compton interviewed farmers and other community members about their observations about changes in the landscape due to large-scale agriculture and pivot irrigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More recently, Fonseca and Pontius have expanded their mapping and geospatial research to use artificial intelligence and cloud computing to improve a free, open-source&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/antoniovfonseca\/summarize-change-components\">research tool available on GitHub<\/a>. Created at Clark, the tool allows users to process large datasets remotely and better analyze complex patterns of land change over time, in any region of the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>\u201cEverything is related to water and how they are using land in this region.\u201d<\/p><cite>\u2014 Antonio Fonseca, geography Ph.D. student<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To support their research using AI to improve the land-cover data tool, Fonseca and Pontius&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/news\/2025\/12\/04\/grants-support-ai-projects-that-enhance-life-on-campus-and-around-the-globe\/\">were awarded a grant<\/a>&nbsp;from the Clark AI Innovation Fund, established with a $50,000 gift from the Yee Family, including Trustee Brian Yee \u201993.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are using the tool to examine time-series data and maps for the research project in the Cerrado. The tool is based on a novel methodology that Pontius developed with Thomas Bilintoh, Ph.D. \u201924, that helps researchers identify frequently overlooked, yet meaningful, patterns in long-time series of land-cover maps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere is a lot of concern about the irrigation in the region, and it affects different stakeholders,\u201d Fonseca says. \u201cEverything is related to water and how they are using land in this region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, even with \u201cthe land changing, the trees being cut down, and communities being displaced, they don\u2019t yet see the big picture of climate change,\u201d he explains. \u201cThe results of our study may provide a way for stakeholders to better understand how land use is related to climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s massive irrigation projects underscore a significant global problem: Across the globe, agriculture uses 70 percent of the world\u2019s freshwater resources, according to scientific studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFood and water are deeply interconnected,\u201d Oliveira says. \u201cAnd with climate change, we have increased reliance upon irrigation to produce food, but we also have reduced capacity to sustain that irrigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a Catch-22 that comes down particularly forcefully in industrial food systems,\u201d he adds, \u201cwhich are chemical- and capital-intensive and drive further&nbsp;climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photos courtesy of Gustavo Oliveira, Rowan Compton, and Antonio Fonseca<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As part of a $750,000\u00a0NASA-funded project, professors Gustavo Oliveira and Robert Gil Pontius Jr. of Clark\u2019s School of Climate, Environment, and Society have been modeling future, competing scenarios of agricultural expansion, given climate change, in Brazil\u2019s Cerrado, known as the region\u2018s \u201dWater Tank.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":27065,"template":"","meta":{"story_color":"var(--clarku-color-blue)","story_headerImg":27065,"section_label":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[241,239],"displayed_author":[242],"featured":[495,494],"topic":[529,131,150,160,165,187,162,134,213,127],"class_list":["post-27035","story","type-story","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment-sustainability","category-worcester-world","displayed_author-meredith-woodward-king","featured-research","featured-secondary","topic-climate","topic-climate-change","topic-faculty","topic-faculty-research","topic-geography","topic-graduate-research","topic-research","topic-school-of-climate-environment-and-society","topic-south-america","topic-undergraduate-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast 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