{"id":1809,"date":"2025-10-15T13:35:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T17:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/marsh-institute\/research-projects\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T23:58:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T03:58:13","slug":"forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"research-projects","link":"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/marsh-institute\/research-projects\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The impact of climate change on conflict is complex as the pathways are likely indirect and conditional. Changing weather patterns and other physical processes associated with climate change can amplify common drivers of armed conflict, such as economic underperformance, food insecurity, and human displacement, but these effects will vary because the immediate and long-term impacts of climatic shocks depend on the affected societies&#8217; resilience and adaptive capacity. This project investigates the joint role of socioeconomic and climate change for forecasts of future armed conflicts. Currently, migration as an indicator of social stress, which may then lead to social unrest and violence in both receiving and originating communities, is being evaluated by eliciting experts&#8217; mental maps of the potential pathways.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The impact of climate change on conflict is complex as the pathways are likely indirect and conditional. Changing weather patterns and other physical processes associated with climate change can amplify common drivers of armed conflict, such as economic underperformance, food insecurity, and human displacement, but these effects will vary because the immediate and long-term impacts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"tags":[21],"principal-investigator":[398],"funding-agency":[434],"class_list":["post-1809","research-projects","type-research-projects","status-publish","hentry","tag-past","principal-investigator-elisabeth-gilmore","funding-agency-us-department-of-defense"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.9 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios | George Perkins Marsh Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/marsh-institute\/research-projects\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The impact of climate change on conflict is complex as the pathways are likely indirect and conditional. Changing weather patterns and other physical processes associated with climate change can amplify common drivers of armed conflict, such as economic underperformance, food insecurity, and human displacement, but these effects will vary because the immediate and long-term impacts [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/marsh-institute\/research-projects\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"George Perkins Marsh Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ClarkUniversityWorcester\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-17T03:58:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@clarkuniversity\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/research-projects\\\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/research-projects\\\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios | George Perkins Marsh Institute\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-15T17:35:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-17T03:58:13+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/research-projects\\\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/research-projects\\\/1809#breadcrumbs\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":0,\"name\":\"ClarkU\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"George Perkins Marsh Institute\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Research-projects\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Research-projects\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Research-projects\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":5,\"name\":\"Research-projects\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/research-projects\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":6,\"name\":\"Research-projects\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/research-projects\\\/1809\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/\",\"name\":\"George Perkins Marsh Institute\",\"description\":\"Clark University\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.clarku.edu\\\/marsh-institute\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios | George Perkins Marsh Institute","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.clarku.edu\/marsh-institute\/research-projects\/forecasting-armed-civil-conflict-under-alternative-climate-change-and-socioeconomic-scenarios\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict under Alternative Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios","og_description":"The impact of climate change on conflict is complex as the pathways are likely indirect and conditional. 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