Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Southern Yucatán Peninsular Region Project (LCLUC-SYPR)

Professors Bill Turner (geography), Jackie Geoghegan (economics) and several graduate students at Clark are conducting research in support of the Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Southern Yucatán Peninsular Region Project. The project uses remotely sensed imagery and spatially explicit probability approaches for modeling and projecting deforestation and land conversion in this region of Mexico.

LCLUC-SYPR is a joint endeavor of the George Perkins Marsh Institute at Clark University, Harvard Forest at Harvard University, and El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR), Mexico. Below is the project overview presented on the LCLUC-SYPR web site: This project has several integrative goals central to understanding and monitoring deforestation and land-use intensification in Yucatán specifically and for modeling and projecting LCLUC in general. The project uses that study of LCLUC in the former old-growth, tropical forests at the base of the peninsula to determine the trajectories of change for longer-term monitoring and assessment there and to develop new LCLUC models of change linking remotely sensed imagery directly to socioeconomic factors that drive land management decisions.  A fuller description of this project may be found here.

The project integrates two, hitherto discrete, modeling approaches, attaching each to ecological studies of land-cover change. The first approach "socializing the pixel", draws on land-cover analysis from TM (and MSS) data to develop empirical diagnostic (Markov chain) models for projecting near-term cover change in the region. The second approach "pixelizing the social" employs empirical-theoretical (econometric) models of land managers in the region. A major aim is to compare the sensitivity and robustness of the approaches and merge them for scenario assessments. The subsequent projections not only assess use-cover change, but the impacts of these changes on biodiversity, productivity and biomass, and ecological structure and function.

The project provides a way of linking social, natural, and policy science interests to serve the LCLUC, global change, and sustainability communities. It is undertaken by such units: social scientists and remote sensing/GIS specialist at GPMI; ecologists at Harvard Forests; and social and natural science researchers and planners at ECOSUR-Chetumal.

Participating current geography graduate students:

Rinku Roy Chowdhury: Landscape ecology and institutions of conservation in the southern Yucatan peninsular region .

Eric Keys: Chile cultivation and forest preservation in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region.

Steven Manson: Integrated assessment and projection of land use/land cover change in the southern Yucatan peninsular region of Mexico.