Caution: Bear right! Keeping visitors safe in our National Parks

Professor Dominic Goldings's research

"Woman dies in snowmobile accident in Yellowstone National Park."
"Three climbers were camped on the Coleman Glacier route when an avalanche buried their tent…"
"Motorcyclist dies in Yosemite Valley accident."

Vacationers don't like to think about the possibility of accident or illness when they're enjoying the beauties of nature in our National Parks. But as the above headlines show, life-threatening events can and do happen. Between 1993 and 1998, for example, 870 people died in National Parks, and many more suffered injury and illness. Considering that in 1998 alone there were more than 287 million recreational visits to the parks, this may not seem like a lot. Nonetheless, the goal of the National Park Service is to reduce those numbers in accordance with its policy of making the safety of visitors its first priority.
Professor Dominic Golding and his colleagues at Clark's Marsh Institute are exploring the patterns of these accidents and illnesses in close collaboration with members of the National Park Service. At the end of the study they hope to recommend strategies designed to decrease the number of these events. View an online interview with undergraduate Ethan Moore who is spending part of summer 2001 distributing questionnaires to park visitors all over the U. S., or read more about the study of visitor safety in the National Park System, below.

The visitor safety study

The circumstances that can threaten the health and safety of visitors to our National Parks are varied. Motorcycle, automobile, boating, swimming and hiking accidents, adverse weather conditions, rock falls, avalanches, and, very occasionally, encounters with wildlife can threaten life as well as health in our National Parks. Park visitors also need medical assistance when illness strikes during their park stay. Sometimes the causes of accidents and illnesses are unforeseeable, but sometimes advance preparation or awareness can avert disaster.
Golding's team will try to gain insight into issues surrounding visitor safety using the following procedure:

They'll read previous research about related topics such as

Visitor safety
Risk management
Risk-seeking behavior
Visitor perception of risk and behavior

They'll use statistical techniques to select for study a representative 30 of the 378 national parks.

They'll collect data on accidents in the selected parks for the period 1993-98, including information about

The date, time, and location of the accident/incident
The nature and severity of the harm and the number of people involved
The sociodemographic characteristics of those involved (e.g., age, sex)
The nature of activities in which the victims were engaged (e.g., wildlife watching, snowmobiling, rock climbing, back country hiking)
The environment at the accident site(e.g., river, cliffs, steep paths)
The apparent cause of the harm
Other contributing factors or relevant conditions (e.g., fog, snow)
Actions taken in response to the accident/incident by park personnel and others

Emergency Medical Service Reports. Reports of the team responding to an accident in a park.
Case Incident Reports (CIR). A CIR is filed for each visitor accident or incident at a National Park and is a more detailed version of the Emergency Reports, above.
Morning Reports. These are reports filed each day for Park Service employees (available online) that summarize major accidents, search and rescues, and other events not related to visitor safety.
Approximately 20,000 visitor surveys conducted in the winter of 2000/1 and summer 2001.
Interviews with selected park personnel about visitor safety

They'll enter data into a computer database.

They'll analyze data using statistical techniques and computer software to determine factors that seem related to accidents and illnesses.

Based on this analysis, the team will devise strategies for the further minimization of risks to park visitors.

The visitor safety project has its own web site, where reports about research findings are being posted as they become available.

What is risk/hazard management?

Would you

Build your home in a region of frequent tornadoes?
Hike in an area where grizzlies had been sited during the previous day?
Canoe without wearing a life vest?
Ride a motorcycle without wearing a helmet?

There are many hazards in our environment that can threaten our lives and health. Researchers at Clark University like Dominic Golding have for many years been involved in the study of risk and hazard management, a field of inquiry that combines an understanding of the environment, psychology, and management. They define hazards as threats to humans and what they value, and risk as a measure of the likelihood and severity of harm that can result from a hazard.
Individuals differ in their perceptions of the amount of risk in a given situation, and the amount of risk they are willing to assume. Those perceptions affect how people prepare (or don't prepare) for hazards, and how they respond to them. Lack of preparation can result in injury, death and millions of dollars spent to aid the victims of disasters.
Risk assessment uses various methods to assess the likelihood and severity of future harm. One of the most commonly used methods is to analyze past data for patterns and trends, and then to make predictions about future events. Researchers make the assumption that future patterns and trends will be similar to those in the past. The identification of such patterns and trends allows risk managers to move forward in setting priorities and devising risk management interventions and strategies.